- ASTS closed down 14.79% on May 29, settling at $113.41 on volume 159% above its three-month average.
- Deutsche Bank downgraded the stock and cut its ASTS stock price target to $106, citing launch delay risk tied to the Blue Origin New Glenn test failure.
- AST SpaceMobile uses a multi-partner launch strategy including both Blue Origin and SpaceX, so the blast introduces execution uncertainty around the BlueBird constellation rollout.
May 29 Close: $113.41 (‑14.79%)
Two events hit ASTS simultaneously on May 29. First, a Blue Origin New Glenn test rocket exploded. Second, Deutsche Bank issued a downgrade and sliced its price target to $106 per share. The market responded swiftly. Nearly 47.8 million shares changed hands — more than double the stock’s typical daily volume. ASTS is not a passive bystander to Blue Origin’s problems. CEO Abel Avellan had previously outlined a plan to put roughly 45 satellites into orbit this year using a multi-partner launch strategy that explicitly includes Blue Origin alongside SpaceX. A grounded or delayed New Glenn program directly compresses that timeline. The stock had already climbed to a 52-week high of $133.80 earlier in the month on enthusiasm around BlueBird satellite deliveries to Cape Canaveral. That enthusiasm is now colliding with hard operational reality. Launch vehicles are not interchangeable on short notice, and any slip in the constellation build-out delays the commercial service revenue that the entire bull thesis depends on.
ASTS reported $70.9 million in 2025 revenues, with $54.3 million of that concentrated in Q4. The sources of that revenue matter: Gateway hardware sales, U.S. government milestones, and consulting fees. Commercial SpaceMobile service revenue does not yet appear on the income statement because the service has not launched. Net losses attributable to common stockholders came in at $341.9 million for the year. The company holds approximately $2.8 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash, and raised an additional $1.06 billion through convertible notes in February 2026. The balance sheet buys time. It does not buy satellites in orbit. Until BlueBird satellites are operational and generating recurring revenue from the company’s MNO partners — AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, and others — the stock trades on milestones, not multiples. A launch delay is not a footnote. It is the primary risk variable. Deutsche Bank’s downgrade reflects exactly that calculus: the gap between the current share price and the $106 target implies the market had priced in a smoother execution path than the Blue Origin failure now permits.
ASTS is a pre-revenue commercial story trading on the credibility of its launch schedule and MNO partnerships. The Blue Origin New Glenn failure introduces a concrete, near-term variable that the market had not fully priced. Deutsche Bank’s downgrade and $106 price target cut formalized that reassessment. The stock’s 14.79% single-day drop on volume 159% above average signals institutional repositioning, not retail noise. With $2.8 billion in cash and a multi-partner launch strategy, ASTS retains operational flexibility — but every month of delay is a month without commercial service revenue, and the company is burning capital at scale.
Blue Origin’s timeline for returning the New Glenn to flight status and any formal update from AST SpaceMobile management on revised 2026 launch cadence targets.
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All investment decisions and their outcomes are solely the responsibility of the reader.
Sources: AOL Finance / Motley Fool, Stocktwits