- Goldman Sachs raised its Tesla Q2 delivery estimate to 420,000 units, above Street consensus of ~400,000.
- Senators Markey and Blumenthal sent a formal letter to NHTSA on June 16 demanding scrutiny of Tesla’s FSD safety data.
- At $404.66, TSLA trades at a TTM P/E of 371.25x — roughly 3.5x its own 5-year median multiple of 107.46x.
TSLA YTD: -8% | P/E 371x
TSLA Stock Gets a Q2 Delivery Boost — With Caveats
Goldman Sachs raised its Q2 delivery forecast for TSLA stock to 420,000 vehicles, up from a prior estimate of 405,000. The firm cited improving demand in China, the United States, and particularly strong year-over-year growth in Europe.
That 420,000 figure sits above the broader Street consensus of roughly 400,000. A beat would matter: Tesla delivered only 358,023 vehicles in Q1 2026, a 14% sequential drop. Full-year 2025 deliveries came in at 1.636 million — an 8.6% annual decline, the second consecutive year of falling volumes.
Goldman is not exactly pounding the table. The firm kept its Neutral rating and $375 price target — a target that sits 7% below Monday’s closing price of $404.66. The bank also acknowledged that Tesla’s deliveries through May were still tracking down in the mid-teens percent year-over-year.
Wall Street’s full-year 2026 consensus sits at approximately 1.7 million vehicles, implying a modest recovery from 2025. Tesla has not publicly confirmed a delivery outlook for the year.
The FSD Regulatory Overhang on TSLA Stock
On June 16, Democratic Senators Edward Markey and Richard Blumenthal sent a formal letter to NHTSA Administrator Jonathan Morrison. They accused Tesla of using “misleading and incomplete” statistics to promote Full Self-Driving.
The senators cite a Reuters investigation from May. That report found Tesla compares its crash data against a different severity threshold than federal standards and benchmarks its newer fleet against the much older overall U.S. vehicle fleet — two methodological choices that inflate the apparent safety advantage. Tesla also counts crashes only within a five-second window post-disengagement; NHTSA uses 30 seconds.
There is a separate structural concern. Tesla is currently the only automaker redacting large portions of its safety data submitted to regulators under confidential business information claims. The senators have asked NHTSA to respond in writing by July 6.
This is not background noise. NHTSA already upgraded one FSD probe to Engineering Analysis status in March — a stage that often precedes a recall — covering approximately 3.2 million vehicles. That probe targets FSD’s camera impairment detection under conditions like sun glare and fog.
Insider activity adds another data point. According to GuruFocus, Tesla insiders sold $21.7 million worth of shares over the past three months.
The Goldman delivery revision is real and material — 420,000 units would end a four-quarter delivery slide if it holds. But Goldman’s own $375 target implies the stock is already pricing in the recovery and then some. At a TTM P/E of 371x against a 5-year median of 107x, the valuation gap requires either a dramatic earnings acceleration or a re-rating downward. The FSD regulatory track is now formally in motion: a July 6 NHTSA response deadline and an active Engineering Analysis covering 3.2 million vehicles are not the kind of headlines that compress risk premiums. The exact data missing from the picture is Tesla’s own internal FSD miles-traveled and non-crash incident figures — the very numbers NHTSA is now demanding.
Q2 vehicle delivery report — a print above 420,000 confirms Goldman’s thesis; anything below 400,000 reopens the annual volume narrative. Also watch NHTSA’s written response by July 6.
Methodology: This brief uses TickerRead’s AI-assisted source-checking workflow and is built from public, source-linked market information. Methodology | Editorial Policy
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All investment decisions and their outcomes are solely the responsibility of the reader.
Sources: Stocktwits, GuruFocus