- Q1 FY27 revenue hit $81.6B (+85.2% YoY); Data Center alone generated $75.25B.
- Q2 FY27 revenue guidance is $91B, with supply commitments already at $119B.
- Shares are up only 10.1% year to date despite 214.5% YoY earnings growth — sentiment, not fundamentals, is the bottleneck.
China Revenue Assumption: $0
NVDA Stock: The Numbers vs. the Price Action
NVDA stock was trading at $205.10 as of June 5th. That is up 10.1% year to date. For context, the company generated $48.55 billion in free cash flow in a single quarter — Q1 FY27 — and posted 85.2% revenue growth to $81.6 billion.
Q2 FY27 guidance stands at $91 billion in revenue. Supply commitments already total $119 billion. The gap between what the business is doing and what the stock is doing is not subtle.
The forward P/E is 23.42. At $205.10 on forward EPS of $8, NVDA stock trades at roughly 26x forward earnings. Earnings are growing at 214.5% year over year. The math is not the problem.
What is the problem? China. Management has explicitly baked in zero Data Center compute revenue from China in the Q2 outlook. H20 export restrictions already cost approximately $8 billion in one quarter. That is a permanent hole in the model until trade policy changes — and no one on the Street is pricing in when or whether it does.
The technical picture adds friction. Shares sit roughly 5% below the 20-day moving average of $219.10. The MACD remains below its signal line. Key resistance is near $217. The stock has not reclaimed near-term strength despite the Q1 print.
South Korea Partnerships and What They Actually Mean
On Sunday, NVIDIA announced a set of AI infrastructure partnerships in South Korea spanning memory, cloud computing, and sovereign AI. The counterparties include SK Hynix, SK Telecom, and NAVER.
SK Hynix is already NVIDIA’s primary HBM supplier. The SK Telecom and NAVER deals extend NVIDIA’s reach into sovereign AI buildouts — governments and national champions buying their own AI stacks rather than routing through U.S. hyperscalers.
Sovereign AI is real demand, but it is not yet a line item anyone can size with precision. What is missing from the public disclosures: the dollar value of these agreements, delivery timelines, and whether the compute is Blackwell or prior-generation hardware.
Monday’s 1.75% gain — shares hit $208.69 — tracked the broader tech rally. The XLK fund rose 2.88% on the session. NVDA stock moved in line with the sector, not ahead of it. The Korea deals did not produce a stock-specific catalyst.
The Unresolved Question
Wall Street’s consensus price target sits at $298.42 to $323.83, depending on the source. The bull case to $300 requires a 38x forward P/E — achievable only if forward EPS estimates drift toward $9 by late 2026 and gross margins hold near 75%.
One internal model pegs the base case at $255.67 by June 2027 with 90% confidence, implying 24.66% upside. The Street’s average implies roughly 45%. The gap between those two figures is where the debate actually lives.
Annual profit could approach or exceed $200 billion if management’s sequential growth guidance holds through the fiscal year — representing more than 70% growth from the approximately $117 billion earned in calendar 2025. That figure has no precedent among U.S. corporations.
NVDA stock has gone sideways while the underlying business printed numbers that do not exist anywhere else in mega-cap history. The question is not whether NVIDIA is a good business — the $48.55B quarterly free cash flow answers that. The question is what breaks the sentiment ceiling. China remains a zero in management’s own model, and no one knows when that changes. The August 26th earnings report will be the next hard data point: $91.70B in analyst consensus revenue and $2.06 EPS versus $1.04 a year earlier. If Q2 delivers and Q3 guidance accelerates, the $255 base case gets stress-tested upward. If hyperscaler capex commentary turns cautious before then, the $216.95 bear case becomes the more relevant number.
Q2 FY27 earnings on Aug. 26, 2026 — specifically Q3 guidance and any change to the China revenue assumption, which currently sits at zero.
Methodology: This brief uses TickerRead’s AI-assisted source-checking workflow and is built from public, source-linked market information. Methodology | Editorial Policy
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All investment decisions and their outcomes are solely the responsibility of the reader.
Sources: 24/7 Wall St., Benzinga